This Edition in One Minute
This edition covers two weeks. The clearest signal came from auditors, not vendors. The US Government Accountability Office found that only 1 of 24 major federal agencies had a complete inventory of systems using quantum-vulnerable cryptography, 23 had done no testing of post-quantum algorithms, and the roughly $7.1 billion federal migration estimate rests on inventories every agency admitted were inaccurate. If the best-resourced organisations struggle with step one, most private organisations are probably further behind than they think.
Governments kept setting dates. The Netherlands published a government-wide quantum strategy aiming to migrate high-risk central-government systems by the end of 2030, and expects an encryption-breaking quantum computer somewhere between 2029 and 2035 without claiming certainty. Europol rated harvest-now-decrypt-later risk high for governments and medium to high for companies, while finding no evidence of large-scale exploitation. Germany's BSI told organisations not to start new deployments of the Classic McEliece algorithm after new estimates put its security below its claimed level, though no practical attack exists. NIST was quiet. The NSA CNSA 2.0 procurement gate on January 1, 2027 is now 79 days away.
This week's readiness step: send your key suppliers a short, specific post-quantum readiness questionnaire. Most of what you need to migrate depends on them.
NIST: no new post-quantum announcements. The latest item on NIST's PQC news page is still the May 14 advancement of nine candidates in the additional-signatures process. FIPS 206 (FN-DSA) and the HQC backup key-encapsulation standard remain pending.
GAO assessed the 24 CFO Act agencies against OMB memo M-23-02, which since 2022 has required an annual inventory of systems using quantum-vulnerable cryptography. Only one agency had a complete inventory of its priority systems (22 partial, 1 none). On testing post-quantum algorithms in their own environments, 23 agencies had done nothing and one had only started market research; 16 said testing was premature because most vendors had not yet added the new algorithms to their products. Only five used automated discovery tools. None of the six agencies examined in depth fully passed an accuracy check, and the OMB migration cost estimate of about $7.1 billion (2025–2035) relies on assessments the agencies acknowledged were inaccurate. GAO's 89 recommendations sit in a sensitive version issued in September 2025; only 12 agencies fully agreed to them.
Targets for central government (policy aims, not law): by end-2026, quantum risk in each organisation's risk management and a cryptography policy; by end-2027, harvest-now-decrypt-later risk addressed and a draft migration plan; by end-2028, quantum-safe procurement requirements; by end-2030, high-risk systems migrated and software and firmware quantum-safe by default; by end-2035, medium-risk systems migrated. The cabinet expects a cryptographically relevant quantum computer between 2029 and 2035 and states the date is uncertain; the Dutch intelligence service AIVD advises preparing for one as early as around 2030.
NSA still does not recommend QKD or other quantum cryptography to protect national security systems, and points to quantum-resistant algorithms instead. The new wording is softer: it drops the 2020 line that NSA did not expect to certify QKD products, and adds that physical degradation can erode security after certification. CNSA 2.0 itself is unchanged and contains no QKD option; ML-KEM-1024 remains the key-establishment algorithm.
After several related papers estimated key-recovery costs below the claimed security levels for all five Classic McEliece parameter sets, BSI said the scheme's security is "substantially lower than previously assumed" and should not be used in new designs. It also said no practical attack is currently possible and that hybrids with a classical scheme still provide at least classical security. BSI prefers ML-KEM or FrodoKEM, will recommend HQC once standardised, and plans to revise its TR-02102-1 guidance in early 2027. Classic McEliece is not a NIST standard; the ML-KEM standard most organisations are adopting is not affected.
Deadlines on the Board
| Deadline | Who it binds | Requirement | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2026 | EU member states | Adopt national PQC migration strategies / begin transition (EU coordinated roadmap) | 78 days |
| Jan 1, 2027 | US National Security Systems (new acquisitions) | NSA CNSA 2.0 — new NSS equipment must support approved quantum-resistant algorithms | 79 days |
| Mid-2027 | Swiss financial institutions | FINMA Guidance 05/2026 — adopt PQC strategy and roadmap | ~8–9 months |
| End-2026 → end-2035 | Dutch central government | Staged migration targets (policy aims, not counted as hard deadlines) | New this edition |
A quieter fortnight for vendors. No post-quantum announcements from the 12 enterprise network/security vendors we track (Check Point, Cisco, Fortinet, Palo Alto Networks, VMware/Broadcom, Ivanti, Citrix, F5, SonicWall, Oracle, Arista, Microsoft) were found in the window, and no new browser rollouts.
Google's documentation still lists hybrid X25519MLKEM768 as off unless enabled, with the switch to on-by-default planned "starting in October 2026" for load balancers with no SSL policy or a policy without a post-quantum setting. Admins can set ENABLED now or DEFERRED to postpone the change to October 2027. We first flagged this date in Edition #6. If you run Google Cloud application or proxy load balancers, check old clients and middleboxes that may reject the larger handshake before the default changes.
IonQ agreed to acquire network-microsegmentation vendor Elisity in an all-stock deal worth up to $1.3 billion and describes the combination as complete quantum security. An independent review found no FIPS 140-3 certificate or validation queue entry for IonQ's or ID Quantique's post-quantum products, no published ML-KEM implementation details, no post-quantum certificate or signature products, and cryptographic inventory only on Elisity's roadmap. Segmentation can contain devices that cannot be upgraded, but it does not protect recorded traffic. Treat "quantum security" bundles the way you would any vendor claim: ask for validation certificates and documentation (see Block 5).
Europol rates harvest-now-decrypt-later risk high for governments, medium to high for companies and low to medium for citizens, and says it found no clear evidence of systematic exploitation at scale; long-lived, high-value data is the plausible target. Its technical point is useful for prioritising: under TLS 1.2 with RSA key transport, stealing one server private key later can decrypt every recorded session, whereas TLS 1.3 and SSH forward-secret exchanges force an attacker to break each session separately. Recommendations: disable TLS 1.0/1.1, enforce forward secrecy, limit how long you retain data, pilot hybrid post-quantum key exchange, and rotate keys and re-encrypt older stored ciphertexts. On timing, Europol says the arrival date is uncertain but "should not be the main concern," because adaptation takes years. Its companion report rejects predictions that quantum computing will end cryptocurrencies but notes there is no cryptographic fix for wallets whose public keys are already exposed.
Sector urgency this edition: government moved up (Europol rating, GAO audit, Dutch targets). Financial services remain elevated from last edition's EU supervisors' warning. No new healthcare or critical-infrastructure signals were found.
Bottom line: nothing in the past two weeks changes credible estimates of when RSA or elliptic-curve cryptography will be broken. The most technically interesting item is a simulation, and the biggest headlines were about money.
| Item | What was claimed | What is verified | Crypto relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google Quantum AI / DeepMind / MIT — modular error-correction memory (arXiv 2610.03682, Oct 2) | About 10× fewer physical qubits per logical qubit than a modular surface-code baseline; "30×+" in the abstract | PREPRINT · SIMULATION10× is from circuit-level simulation at 0.1% physical error; 30× is an extrapolation; nothing ran on hardware; real-time decoding not shown | Moderate in principle. An independent analyst estimates it could roughly halve the idle-storage part of the best-known RSA-2048 estimate if every assumption held, and says it does not change his Q-Day view. |
| DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative — Stage C (Oct 7) and Pentagon ~$350M package (Oct 8) | Atom Computing, Diraq, IBM and IonQ advanced; ~$200M DARPA funding plus up to $150M conditional loan to PsiQuantum | GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCEMENTFunding and programme selections are official; they do not certify any machine's capability | Indirect. More money and independent benchmarking, not a capability milestone. |
Sixteen of the 24 US agencies GAO audited said they could not test post-quantum algorithms because their vendors had not shipped them. Most organisations will hit the same wall: your migration speed is set by your suppliers' roadmaps. A short, specific questionnaire turns vague "we're quantum-ready" answers into evidence you can plan around. Send it to the vendors behind your most important systems first.
- Pick the vendors that matter. Start with suppliers of VPNs and firewalls, load balancers, identity and certificate systems, HSMs and key management, and any SaaS holding data that must stay confidential for 10+ years.
- Ask which algorithms ship today, by product and version. ML-KEM (FIPS 203) for key exchange, ML-DSA (FIPS 204) or SLH-DSA (FIPS 205) for signatures, and whether hybrid key exchange is on by default or must be enabled.
- Ask for validation evidence, not intentions. FIPS 140-3 certificate numbers that include the post-quantum algorithms, or the date the module entered the validation queue. "Compliant" or "ready" without a certificate is a roadmap.
- Ask for dated roadmaps. Which quarter each remaining product gets post-quantum key exchange and signatures, including certificates, code signing and firmware updates.
- Ask about fallback and agility. Can post-quantum key exchange be required rather than offered? Can algorithms be changed by configuration without new hardware?
- Ask what they can tell you about your own cryptography. Can the product report which algorithms and key sizes it is using, so it feeds your inventory?
- Record and reuse the answers. Add them to your crypto inventory and build the questions into renewals and RFPs. Re-ask every six months.
Rotation note: previous topics were #1 crypto inventory · #2 certificate lifecycle / CA readiness · #3 TLS 1.3 + hybrid PQC planning · #4 hybrid TLS hardening · #5 PKI / root-first migration · #6 FIPS 140-2 → 140-3 procurement · #7 HSM / key-management migration · #8 post-FIPS-transition actions · #9 VPN / IPsec PQC readiness. Vendor questionnaires have not been this block's focus before.
- Window
- September 30 – October 14, 2026 (14 days since Edition #9; no edition was published on October 7, so this edition covers both weeks)
- Changed since last edition
- GAO-27-108740 federal readiness audit; Dutch government-wide quantum strategy and migration targets; Europol HNDL and cryptocurrency reports; NSA QKD statement rewritten (position unchanged); BSI advice against new Classic McEliece deployments; Google/DeepMind modular error-correction preprint; DARPA QBI Stage C selections and Pentagon funding; IonQ–Elisity acquisition; Google Cloud post-quantum default still pending.
- Checked, nothing new
- NIST CSRC PQC news; CNSA 2.0 (unchanged); CISA PQC guidance; the 12 tracked enterprise network/security vendors; browser vendors' PQC rollouts; AWS and Azure PQC announcements; PQC patent activity.
- Countdown
- CNSA 2.0 new-NSS acquisition gate: 79 days (Jan 1, 2027). EU member-state strategies: 78 days (Dec 31, 2026).
- Method notes
- Hardware claims labelled vendor/research, preprint or official. Several items are summarised through PostQuantum.com analyses; the Europol, NSA and Google Cloud primary pages are linked for verification. The Netherlands targets are listed in the deadlines table but not counted as hard deadlines because they are policy aims. Block 7's self-referential count uses the site search index (vuln and threat entries since September 30) and the full text of this service's daily reports for the same period.
- Corrections
- None this edition.
Every row below is filtered for relevance to cryptography — quantum news without a cryptographic or security implication is excluded.
| # | Indicator | This edition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research publications | Active classical cryptanalysis of a post-quantum scheme: three related analyses (including IACR ePrint 2026/1984) put Classic McEliece key recovery below its claimed security levels, prompting BSI's advisory. On the quantum side, Google's modular error-correction preprint (arXiv 2610.03682) is the most crypto-relevant resource paper of the period, though simulation-only. |
| 2 | Patent filings | No meaningful signal this edition. |
| 3 | Startup funding | No verified PQC-specific funding round found. (IonQ's up-to-$1.3B Elisity acquisition is marketed as quantum security but buys a network-segmentation business; Pentagon funding went to quantum hardware, not cryptography.) |
| 4 | New product categories / entrants | A quantum-hardware company positioning itself as an end-to-end "quantum security" vendor via acquisition (IonQ/Elisity) — a new entrant type, with independently noted gaps in validation and documentation. |
| 5 | Standards progress (non-NIST) | ISO/IEC 18033-2 Amd 2:2026, which includes Classic McEliece, now faces lower security estimates; no ISO response yet. BSI plans to revise TR-02102-1 in early 2027. |
| 6 | Enterprise adoption | Demand side lagging: GAO found 1 of 24 major US agencies with a complete crypto inventory and 23 with no post-quantum testing; only 5 use automated discovery. |
| 7 | Regulatory references (beyond NIST/CNSA) | Netherlands government-wide strategy with 2026–2035 targets (Oct 5). Europol recommends an EU working group led by the European Commission with ENISA, CERT-EU and AMLA, and asks policymakers to assess central bank digital currencies' quantum exposure (Oct 6–7). |
| ★ | Frequency in DeepFalcon threat/vuln reports (since Sep 30) | 0 mentions. No quantum or post-quantum references in daily vuln or threat report titles, summaries or tags in the search index from September 30 to October 14, or in the full text of the daily reports from that period. |